Diving into the Solutions

Picking up where I left off last week, it’s time to finally dive into Sprague’s suggestions to beef up Bangor that he laid out for us at the beginning of February.

Certainly, I applaud his efforts to want to tackle this issue and I believe he raises a good conversation that needs to be had throughout the state.

In fixing the problem, I believe the place to start is by reaching out to people who left Bangor to figure out why and if anything could bring them back. This input from former residents will truly be valuable in pin-pointing the issues of attraction.

In terms of the proposed solutions, there’s no doubt that the state of Maine must begin offering more incentives in order to retain its current population and attract young people. As I left off saying last week, the demographic challenges Maine cities are feeling are ‘fundamentally economic challenges,” so its important that we focus on providing economic incentives for the individual in order to get things booming again.

In doing this, I believe a good place to start would be adjusting the structure of taxes here in Maine to help end the burden on land owners and inspire businesses to want to open up shop here.

I thought Sprague came up with a few creative ideas in his plan to help get this ball rolling.

Specifically, I like the idea of providing businesses with tax relief the first two years of their existence in order to promote entrepreneurship and begin stimulating a pretty malignant economy. Although the state will be missing out on the business taxes for the first few years, revenue will still be pumped into the system through the businesses employees who are still generating income tax, sales tax, and excise taxes.

In terms of real estate, what better way to inspire first-time homebuyers than providing partial property tax rebates and grant programs for home rehab? Today is more of a ‘buyers’ rather than ‘sellers’ market in terms of the best bargain, so this would be a smart avenue for cities in Maine to begin exploring.

Perhaps an income-tax rebating program for new residents, as Sprague mentioned in his report, would make sense as well.

Another key area that Sprague hit on and that I personally believe deserves attention is the idea of providing additional help for young people entrenched in student loan debt. He talked about offering tax credits to help former students dig out of their debt and encourage them to choose Maine even if they didn’t attend school here.

We are already beginning to see these student loan relief programs coming about like the Opportunity Maine program launched in 2008 to provide a tax credit to help cover the payment of some student loans for eligible Maine students who graduate from a Maine community college and then work and pay taxes in Maine.

But due to the state’s failure to effectively market it, only a fraction of college graduates take advantage of the program.

The goal for Maine is quite simple: We need to prevent “brain drain” and keep the best and the brightest in the state. That is why I believe it is absolutely worth investing time and money to revamp this program and create other incentives for college graduates to want to stay here. With no money behind a marketing strategy, and recent efforts to fund one being cut, the program has gone overlooked and underutilized which is truly unfortunate.

But that is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to digging out of this demographic rut.

I hope to continue bringing practical solutions to discussion in the coming weeks, but in the mean time, it is definitely worth checking out Ben Sprague’s “38 suggestions” for more of a look at the efforts currently in the works to help rejuvenate an aging Maine. http://bangordailynews.com/?attachment_id=1645424&ref=relatedSidebar

There’s Reason to be Optimistic

Although Maine’s population trends are far from ideal and the age gap continues to grow by day, it is still important that we do not throw in the towel and let our state collapse while watching. 

Even in the darkest days, there is still plenty of reasons to be optimistic about Maine’s future. But as I’ve pointed out already, fixing these problems is not going to be a cake walk by any means.

It’s going to take a lot of thought and effort from people all over the state, not just legislators in Augusta. 

And with all the partisan gridlock causing inability and ‘over-reliance’ on short term fixes to larger structural challenges, it is likely that real solutions will have to come from outside of the state’s capital as Bangor City Council Chairman Ben Sprague explained in his Bangor Population Growth Strategy plan released two weeks ago. 

Sprague, a young and energetic Maine public servant, is ready to fight Maine’s age problem by its horns and welcomes any and all who are willing to do the same. 

He stresses small ideas in his economic growth plan for Bangor in hopes of attracting more people to the city while reaching out to people who left Bangor to figure out why and if anything could bring them back. 

“In the scheme of what will ultimately be necessary to boost the population of the Bangor region and the state, these are relatively small ideas. But that’s precisely why they’re so good. They are doable. The Bangor council and selectmen everywhere should have been acting on proposals like them years ago. Growth rarely happens in leaps and bounds. It builds on itself. It requires lots of work by many people on many projects over time — essentially, commitment and focus.”

Politicians in Maine have often aimed for big deals to address Maine’s population problem and although they are goals that are well-intentioned, they are not ‘entirely realistic.’

That is why Sprague has laid out 38 suggestions as a new approach to tackle the underlying problem that has been bringing Maine down and as a way to retain and recruit people to the Greater Bangor Area.

His plan includes: “creating a “how-to” guide for starting a business; reaching out to people who left Bangor to figure out why and if anything could bring them back; creating a grant program for home rehab for first-time homebuyers; launching a branding campaign to promote the city; creating a 10-year plan for the waterfront, Main Street and downtown; launching business recruitment missions; and providing partial property-tax rebates for first-time homebuyers.”

I admire Sprague’s thoughts and efforts, and believe it is important that we follow his direction and build upon it before it’s too late.

After reading his plan, it is clear to me that the demographic challenges Bangor and the rest of Maine face today are fundamentally economic challenges.

And in order to grow our population, we must first take steps in growing our economy which will then lead to more jobs, people and energy throughout the state to help fuel economic activity and tax revenue that is needed in order for Maine to be a thriving, prosperous state. 

But until next week, stay warm and think positive Maine. 

 

How Do We Fix it?

Like I ended in my post last week, the solution to Maine’s age problem is pretty straightforward but far from simple.

We must get more people from other places to move here while retaining our young people before they exit the state for good.

It’s a harsh reality, but if Maine does not see close to 60,000 new arrivals in the next 20 years, the state will be doomed as University of Southern Maine Economist Charlie Colgan put it at a roundtable forum last fall. “People assume that if we could just keep our young people here, it
would solve the problem. There are not half enough of them because
not enough young people are born here. We have to get people from other
places to move here. We’ve got to get more people in.”

Maine has continually struggled when it comes to finding ways in recruiting young people to the state.

Many suggest such issues of higher taxes, frigid winters and a lack of high paying jobs have been responsible for creating such challenges in recruitment and I see myself agreeing with that.

Gov. Paul LePage and the Republicans here in Maine have been quick to point at the state’s tax policy in being responsible for discouraging entrepreneurs from creating jobs and attracting people to move to Maine.

Since he was elected in 2010, LePage has spoken of lower taxes, responsible budgeting, less welfare and a pro-growth attitude as the winds of change needed for Maine to get back on the map.

By enacting policies that lower taxes, reduce welfare and create a more business friendly state, more companies will be willing to set up tent in Maine and begin offering good paying jobs.

LePage believes this will allow for more private-sector businesses to create jobs and revenue needed to grow Maine’s economy and provide services needed to take care of its aging population.

But whether this is the right approach to dig Maine out of its rut is up to debate.

Either way, we can all agree that the current demographic strategy here in Maine needs to be gutted out in order to fix Maine’s natural population decrease and compete with other New England states for people in the younger age group.

Although Maine’s population is still growing overall, those incoming residents alone can’t be counted on to fill the workforce vacancies left behind by retiring baby boomers. The Census shows a July 2012 population of 1,329,921, up from 1,328,544 in 2011 and 1,327,585 in
2010 — due to the steady migration of new residents from out of state.

As J. Scott Moody, economist and CEO of the conservative Maine Heritage Policy Center puts it, “The economic analogy I use is that migration is the short-term business
cycle. But your long-term growth is driven by your net natural growth,”
Moody said. “Our migration tends to be from the Boston area, and the
folks coming here are … older, retiring baby boomers. The type of
migration we’re getting in the state isn’t likely to change that
long-term pattern [of people leaving the workforce], and in fact may
reinforce that long-term pattern.”

So although Maine is technically seeing numbers of migration today, it isn’t necessarily the type of migration that is sustainable enough to fix the workforce issue coming down the road in the future.

Maine would have to bring in people way above the historical trend
in order to make up the difference between the number of
people likely to leave the workforce and those being born here and
coming of age.

Let’s Talk Age-Gap

While many people in Maine are talking football and gearing up for tonight’s Super Bowl, I can’t help but think about the elephant in the room that has been stressing me out lately. That’s not to say I will not be watching tonight’s football game because I definitely will. But first, I want to free my mind and wake up Maine’s youth about the age-gap that is disproportionately growing every day that passes.

Like the old adage says, admitting you have a problem is the first step in fixing the problem. Maine is the oldest state in the nation and is one of the ‘whitest’ states in terms of demographics. Although we’re not made up entirely of old white people, we’re pretty damn close.

With a median age of 43.5 years reported by the U.S. Census Bureau in 2012, Maine’s age distribution topples the national median age average at 37.4 and continues to grow older.

As Professor Charles Colgan from the University of Southern Maine’s Muskie School of Public Service puts it, “It’s not that we are disproportionately old,’ he said. “It’s that we are disproportionately not young.”

Maine, demographically, is currently at a surplus of baby boomers and a shortage of young adults.

Sadly, the problem is only going to worsen through time if action is not taken. With the rate of baby boomers growing older and our population decreasing over time, there is going to come a point where the tax base will not be big enough to support such government program services necessary for our senior citizens.

A decreasing population will also lead to a shortage in skilled labor and a shrinking economy if Maine fails to attract skilled and educated workers to the state.

We are already seeing signs of this as Maine’s retired population grows and the number of non-working dependents begins to outweigh the number of working age adults in what is known as the ‘dependency ratio.’

In terms of how to fix the problem, the solution is straightforward but far from simple: Bring more people to Maine.